The myth of SXSW Interactive is that both Twitter and Foursquare exploded onto the Web 2.0 scene – the reality when you look at the services and when they were adopted by many is a little different. Still, the mantra is there, and that means many will be looking to Austin for the next big thing in mobile.

Kim-Mai Cutler doesn’t think we’ll find one.

But the reality is a bit more complex. From Facebook’s beginnings up until the IPO last year, the most hyped consumer startups like Twitter, Pinterest and Tumblr a) tapped into people’s vanity or need for self-expression and b) leaned toward advertising.

The apps that I’ve stuck to in the last year like Zimride’s Lyft, Uber, etc. a) actually rely on users paying for goods or services (not advertising!) b) match supply and demand in two-sided markets in real-time and c) can pay for growth once they nail their lifetime value.

The key with these models is highly controlled growth. Startups like Lyft and Sidecar are limited by the number of quality drivers they can hire. Exec is only expanding to cities out of SF now that the company feels confident that it can maintain the user experience while scaling the supply-side remotely. These companies grow carefully, city by city and country by country.

Not by betting the farm on one big splashy SXSW launch.

Read on at TechCrunch.

Every year, there’s always someone trying to be the next Twitter at SXSW – which forgets two important facts. The first is that Twitter had three years of being “the big thing that came out of SXSW”, and the second is that any project that comes from an Alumni of SXSW Baby! (in this case Ev WIlliams) gets a Hall Pass from us.

But the question on this year’s overnight success at SXSW Interactive is already in the air. While getting Austin all excited is no guarantee of a hit, it will get you noticed in the Tech Press. As Marin Prez puts it “…at this time last year, Foursquare was the darling of the tech press, especially at industry wankfests like SXSW.”

Can we decide who’ll be the biscuit this year?

Louis Gray says it’s going to be Beluga, a group-texting solution for Android and iOS devices that allows group management and file attachment – arguably a function that phones can already do but that centralised list management for replies could be key. It’s a nice solution for a fixed group of people, but it seems to lack the ad-hoc nature of social groups that makes SXSW so special.

#Hashable is another service frequently mentioned, such as on this Quora thread on “what apps will be most used at SXSW?” Again it’s a mobile application, but rather than helping you talk to people you know, it’s all about managing people you have just met. Ready to shout about who you have just met on a public internet channel? TO help build up a dynamic relationship book? This might need a bit more push to get the Austin Mojo building up around it. Currently in private (invite) beta, expect this to go “live” by the time the New York team reach Texas.

Anyone spot a winner yet? Nor us! To be honest we here at Baby! have no idea what could come out on top (although I’d argue my Filofax coupled with some Text Messages beats anything), but what do you think?